A majority of likely Florida voters, including registered Republicans, say they would support a proposed constitutional amendment that would enshrine abortion rights into Florida’s state constitution, according to a poll released Tuesday.
The new polling conducted by the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab found that 69 percent of polled voters would support Amendment 4, which will appear on the statewide ballot this November.
The ballot summary reads in part, “No law shall prohibit, penalize, delay, or restrict abortion before viability or when necessary to protect the patient's health, as determined by the patient's healthcare provider.”
Viability, a term that anti-abortion Republicans have politicized in recent years to confuse voters, is understood in medicine as the point at which a fetus can survive outside of the womb, generally considered at roughly 24 weeks of pregnancy.
Currently, under Florida law, abortion is banned after six weeks of pregnancy, with limited exceptions that many doctors have found difficult to navigate, especially with misinterpretation placing them at risk for criminal penalties.
The UNF survey of 774 likely voters in Florida found that 87 percent of polled Democrats said they would support Amendment 4, as did 53 percent of Republicans and 71 percent of Independents.
The UNF poll was conducted from July 24 through July 27, incorporating both phone and web surveys, distributed to a random sample of likely Florida voters via text message. Voters who said they would “probably” or “definitely” not vote in the upcoming 2024 election were screened out.
Advocates for the abortion rights measure, spearheaded by the political committee Floridians Protecting Freedom, have uplifted its support among both Democrats and Republicans alike in what has become an increasingly red state.
The campaign, which has raised nearly $39 million through its political committee, is emphasizing the measure’s goal of limiting government interference in abortion decisions, arguing that such decisions should be left to pregnant people, families, and their healthcare providers.
“Mainstream Floridians do not want extreme abortion bans,” Lauren Brenzel, campaign director for Floridians Protecting Freedom, shared in a statement last year. “Our initiative will ensure that the decision to have an abortion belongs to Floridians, their families, and those they trust – not politicians.”
“Our initiative will ensure that the decision to have an abortion belongs to Floridians, their families, and those they trust – not politicians.”
tweet this
Under Florida’s state constitution, statewide ballot measures need at least 60 percent of support from voters in order to pass. Previous polling on the issue of Amendment 4 indicates the proposal may be gaining support, as the campaign — and allied organizations in support of Amendment 4 — launch community canvasses, door-knocking events, and other grassroots efforts to get out the vote for the initiative.
Another recent poll conducted by Fox News, for instance, found Amendment 4 similarly polling at 69 percent support among 1,075 registered voters, with 50 percent of polled Republicans indicating support, and 45 percent of Republican voters opposed. The poll from UNF, in contrast, found 37 percent of Republicans opposed to Amendment 4 and 10 percent "undecided" or otherwise refusing to answer.
Still, pollsters warn that support for the initiative could dwindle as new opposition campaigns — led by Gov. DeSantis and anti-abortion groups — ramp up, and as voters are exposed to a state-backed financial statement to accompany the measure that abortion rights supporters argue is “a dirty trick to mislead voters.”
“Again, we have yet to see campaigns on either side of this really get moving,” said Dr. Michael Binder, a political science professor and faculty director of UNF’s Public Opinion Research Labor. “Factor in the highly contested and contentious financial impact statement recently added to the ballot summary, and I would expect to see support for this amendment drop before November.”
Mi Vecino, a voter engagement organization that is focusing on efforts to secure Hispanic support for Amendment 4, found that out of 1,500 on-the-ground conversations they've had with voters who identify as Catholics so far in Orange and Osceola Counties, 35 percent said they would support the abortion rights initiative, while 28 percent said they were undecided.
“The reality is that many Catholics like myself support abortion access and don’t view reproductive healthcare as at odds with our faith,” said Mi Vecino co-founder Devon Murphy-Anderson. “This is a complex issue, which is why 28% of Catholics are undecided on how they’ll vote. We’re investing in having authentic conversations with voters about their values and what’s at stake in November.”
According to state records, Florida had 13.4 million registered voters as of June 30. Of those, 5,257,407 voters registered as Republicans, 4,300,964 registered Democrats, and 3,872,239 registered to either a minor party or "No Party Affiliated."
Voters in up to 11 red and blue states this year could have the chance to weigh in on abortion-related ballot measures. Measures in six states — including Florida, Nevada, Colorado, South Dakota, New York and Maryland — have already been confirmed for placement on the 2024 ballot, while the others are still awaiting approval for ballot placement.
Since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned the landmark Roe v. Wade decision in June 2022, guaranteeing the constitutional right to abortion, voters in seven other states have already weighed in on abortion-related constitutional amendments, with support for abortion rights prevailing in every state so far.
Subscribe to Orlando Weekly newsletters.
Follow us: Apple News | Google News | NewsBreak | Reddit | Instagram | Facebook | Twitter | or sign up for our RSS Feed
